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+2 votes
29 views

What will be the US reaction?

Nothing... Taiwan is in their sphere of influence, so let them have ‘em?

Talk and talk and talk but not do much of anything.

Or WW3 in the making?

Thoughts?


ago in In the News by (772,300 points)

3 Answers

+1 vote
 
Best answer

China under Ji Pen is pushing the envelope.  They are checking on Bidens tolerance or myopia.  So Here are a few thoughts.

1.  Japan, Korea, Australia, and New Zealand have new warships being built or just launched.  Japan has built its 1st Carrier since WW2.

2.  The Marine Corps is being reconfigured to deal with the China problem

3.  The Philippines are rearming to the best of their ability.  Expect a shooting confrontation over the illegal fishing vessels in their territorial waters.  This should happen just before Monsoon Season '21

My feeling is China is 3 to 4 years away from a major escalation, they will however push and push hard.  The 1st nation to shoot will be Vietnam in conjunction with Malaysia, Philippines and Cambodia,  We are 6-18 months out on that.

China is focused on a short, hot fast war.  Their strategy is to avoid a long conflict.  Their 1st moves are being played out in trying to undermine the US economy, current weapon of choice Bitcoin.  They are focusing on negating the advantage of US carrier forces.

Wild cards

A. India's submarine force based in the Adamans.  The most serious threat to Malaca Straights, China's lifeline.  This force is also a threat to their Silk Road Strategy from bases in Mumbai

B. Myanmar and Russian arming of the Junta.  The Burmese hate the Chinese.  Any overt moves on Indias southern flank must pass over or thru Myanmar. 

C. Chinas new type 55 Frigates, are they the panacea China hopes for.  Will their base in Djibouti be able to interdict the  Indian Ocean and Suez merchant traffic

In this scenario China will sacrifice Iran for a quick Victory

We are already in a Cold WW3, the question will it go hot?  I believe it will

ago by (2,877,980 points)
+1

I just love your cheery posts arch, I've missed them

+1

GB the question  was both strategic and tactical.  My response was spot on, not meant to be cheery.  Both of these areas are in my wheelhouse, I have extensive experience, and I am still alive

Cheery would be a way out of the current politics and do something about China before the shooting starts

Just saying

+2

That went right over your head didnt it. We in the UK do sat Americans dont get sarcasm 

+1

GB no it did not per se, I responded to your barking mad sarcasm with a practical rejoinder.  Do remember I did spend a lot of time in my younger years working with both SAS and the Paras both in training and joint operations.

+1 vote

The US will have a major leaflet campaign and maybe a charity concert.

ago by (3,974,901 points)
+1 vote

Maybe.  The US sold out Tiawan decades ago when due to the one china policy, the US dumped tiawan and recognized mainland china as the one china.

But things change.  Tiawan makes most of the high tech semiconductors used in the US electronics industry.  Even the stuff assembled in China.  The pandemic has shown how vulnerable this supply chain is.  If they let china take over this industry, china wins.  At that point we have no high tech industry.

If it would have been easy to take the island by force, Tiawan would already be part of China.

ago by (1,514,210 points)
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