China under Ji Pen is pushing the envelope. They are checking on Bidens tolerance or myopia. So Here are a few thoughts.
1. Japan, Korea, Australia, and New Zealand have new warships being built or just launched. Japan has built its 1st Carrier since WW2.
2. The Marine Corps is being reconfigured to deal with the China problem
3. The Philippines are rearming to the best of their ability. Expect a shooting confrontation over the illegal fishing vessels in their territorial waters. This should happen just before Monsoon Season '21
My feeling is China is 3 to 4 years away from a major escalation, they will however push and push hard. The 1st nation to shoot will be Vietnam in conjunction with Malaysia, Philippines and Cambodia, We are 6-18 months out on that.
China is focused on a short, hot fast war. Their strategy is to avoid a long conflict. Their 1st moves are being played out in trying to undermine the US economy, current weapon of choice Bitcoin. They are focusing on negating the advantage of US carrier forces.
A. India's submarine force based in the Adamans. The most serious threat to Malaca Straights, China's lifeline. This force is also a threat to their Silk Road Strategy from bases in Mumbai
B. Myanmar and Russian arming of the Junta. The Burmese hate the Chinese. Any overt moves on Indias southern flank must pass over or thru Myanmar.
C. Chinas new type 55 Frigates, are they the panacea China hopes for. Will their base in Djibouti be able to interdict the Indian Ocean and Suez merchant traffic
In this scenario China will sacrifice Iran for a quick Victory
We are already in a Cold WW3, the question will it go hot? I believe it will