So in horse racing, how do you pick a “winner?”

Question

What impresses you the most?

1) The horse’s history (# of wins etc)

2) The odds of the particular horse

3) The owner

4) The trainer

5) The jockey

6) The race track ( dirt, combination etc) 

8) A combination of of these factors 

9) Other? Please explain 

Answer 1

Well, lady4u, as you've witness in the many weeks with us, horse racing is a very unpredictable sport. There's absolutely no certainty or guarantee. There are tools to use, with the past performances being your best bet.

The past performances show us how each horse has performed in the past, and how each of the contenders in that race compare. For example; amount of wins, how often they race, if the horse is going up or down in class, ratings, what tracks they raced at, and at what distance they've won or finished in the money. Also, how they performed against the other horses in the field or of the same class. If they were bred for the distance. Also, their jockey and trainer, ect.. There's a lot of information packed in those past performances. For me, it's all that, and knowing the horses; the way that they act, their form, how their tail is. How their ears point, (are they pricked) and much more. 

A horse that has a winning personality is filled with confidence. It's quite amazing to see the excitement in these amazing athletes. Most important thing is to realize these amazing animals are not machines, they have good and bad days just like us. Horse sense will never make sense, lol, so just have fun with it. 

You could take some time to learn to read the PP's ( Past Performances) if you want. There's a link that Blue Jay provides us in every race for our convenience. It's really not as hard to understand as it once was. Now they break it down for us along the very the top, for example at the upper far right  once in the PP's you see speed at distance which is a good break down of what horses will crossed the finish line in the top positions. Also, at the bottom you will see how they did their last 3 races and so on. Once you get a few winners under your belt you'll love the feeling. Even us top handicappers win some and lose some, it's not called gambling for nothing. Hosting races here is just for fun. In real life betting I know how to bet, and back up my bet! If betting. Betting is not my purpose, it's the love for the sport and horses, and people. Bottom line, learning the moves is key, much like playing chess, there's a strategy, and gut feelings too, where you naturally get better over time.

I hope this helps

: )

Comments

Awesome answer SandyGirl!

Yes, horses have good and bad days! Even my grandfather’s horses Rose and Nell had totally separate personalities. Rose was always up for a ride or even a short run. Nell seemingly was less enthusiastic and would even side step a bit if you tried to saddle her. I never pushed the issue. I told my father and grandfather she wasn’t  “in the mood.” They just shook their heads.

Rose tolerated my Highland Collie Prince and accepted him running with us.

Nell held a grudge as Prince tried to herd both horses to the barn with the cows who got milked by my grandfather. She would buck and kick if he. came near, even if he wasn’t herding! Lol! 

Funny horses!

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A Best Answer ( Cold Exacta ) and two Honorable mentions this week!

I don`t think lady4u is a stranger to the Racing Form.

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SandyGirl nail it, lol.

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Thank you for BA, lady4u. 

I enjoyed and appreciated your Rose and Nell story very much, lol. Priceless. Thank you for sharing. 

Answer 2

I go with the odds mainly, around 6 to 1 or 8 to 1 for a winner. I'm lazy.

Answer 3

I use my own " The Blue Jay Factor"

When added together gives each Horse a specific rating.

1. Jockey

2. Class

3. Form

4. Speed

5. Past Odds

Answer 4

I dont, I absolutely abhor animals being used for human entertainment. Horseracing like dog racing, fox hunting and bull fighting is particularly abhorrent as it usually comes with a prize.

Comments

I respect your opinion Belle.

But the old adage holds true.

You can lead a horse to water but you can’t make ‘‘em drink!

Meaning if a horse doesn’t want to race they won’t. Oh sure they will participate, but there is no reason why a fast horse falls back in the pack~other than they absolutely don’t wanna that day~ I have always believed this from 9 years of age to present. If they consistently fail to participate they are retired not mistreated! If only horses could talk and tell us why! Maybe they don’t like the fit of the saddle, the rider or even another horse? 

They are teaching dogs to talk by pressing buttons to answer the owners questions with yes or no. They then can progress to pushing noun and verb requests with owners patience! Horses are very very smart! With some adaptation I am sure a horse could also be trained to use these to communicate with their trainers, jockeys and owners!

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Yeah and they train Donkeys to carry a ton of bricks on its back. Doesn't make it right.

They capture dolphins and make them do tricks, dolphins do tricks in their natural habitat, they don't need an audience or a ticket kiosk.

They trained Monkeys to sit with the pretty lady and get a picture, it doesn't make it right.

They breed beagles  to  smoke, why? Its pretty clear what smoking does to a human why did they need the dogs?.

They breed animals to see if shampoo will burn a humans scalp off, why? Animals don't need fancy soap.

If only they could talk huh? There is a fault in humans that make them need to own, enslave and bend free will for their own advantage. Its not getting better anytime soon.

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Belle, your comparisons are pretty extreme. Most of which you mention is not even legal in the United States. Plus, all those things are NOT equal so you can't fairly compare them. It's like comparing apples to oranges. Yes, of course, there are cases of abuse through training but there's a clear difference between what is cruel and what is not. Training/taming an animal when done correctly is not cruel. The purpose of the training is so that an animal is better off as a result. Just as we train or teach our children. (Better yet I'll leave children out of this). Taming/training saves the life of an animal by giving it a purpose for being.  Service dogs have use, as does working police dogs for example. Most people train their pets. Horses are the same, some are trained to race, some are trained to aid in therapy for children, and those with disabilities, some are trained to work. They love to compete. And, yes, they tell us. Animals definitely communicate. Certain animals are more emotionally and mentally stable when trained. Taming an animal is not cruel. Bull fighting, dog fighting, and cock fighting, are fighting, hunting is hunting, that's a whole different thing. I think it's fair to say there's two sides to this coin where cruelty does exist and where it doesn't. Anything in a subjective world can have two or even more sides. An opinion is just that, an opinion. However, getting all the facts is key. I think we've all have said what we feel on this subject more than once or twice here. It looks like nothing has changed on views no matter how many times we touch on it. I believe an agree to disagree applies here. No need to rain on the parade.

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Agreeing to disagree is a just a passive way to say shut up. 

There are many many posts on here about horse racing so who exactly has to shut up?

It would help if you read my post particularly the bit where I emphasis human entertainment,  not working animals like service dogs as if that is a legitimate comparison.

So to move on, while people are posting about race horses my opinion will be my response.

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Agree to disagree means for both parties to stop arguing about something because neither party will compromise or be persuaded otherwise, as it is obviously in this case. I chose the polite way for us both, Belle. I'm  not angry enough in my response to tell you to shut up, nor would I ever say that. No Malice here. I never attacked your character, Belle, just the subject in pointing out your false equivalencies, as I see it. Service dogs are trained no different than horses these days. We've actually come a long way making changes in many of the areas you touched on. I can't speak for everyone, of course, as they will always be assholes, but why should we fault everyone else for their lack of compassion. I know the people here who enjoy horse racing would not hurt a fly, so to speak. They are hands on, get things done safety advocates for the sport of horse racing, and rights for other animal activists. Not just mouth pieces. 

I did read the part your insinuating that I didn't. I read all parts of your answer. I, also, appreciate the fact you move on from what you don't like or disapprove off. People like and dislike different things. I move on from plenty of subjects here myself. Bottom line, I heard your opinion clear, Belle. Thanks for the conversation. No hard feelings as they say, lol. 

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I wasn't arguing, there was no "both parties " you are not the OP, you made the choice to reply when it was unsolicited. I wasn't looking for your opinion, I also note you didn't suggest anyone else "agree to differ" about the horse racing question, you well and truly agreed there with a virtual high five. It is therefore a fair assumption that you did not like my response but was unable to move on from it. I fully recognise that a horse crowd moved here from some site that closed down, I have been here from the start.

As I said, while there are posts about horse racing or any animal subject my opinion will be my response 

No hard feeling like.

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Right, understood! No argument, per se`.  I'm responsible for the fact that I did indulged in having the conversation further. It is what it with these type sites. You could of said you were not open to further conversation, but I see  you opened up with your opinion, and that you continued, as well. Enough said is the phrase I often here. 

Yes! We came here from another site, but it was more than just horse racing there too. We were welcomed here, we did not invade the space. There was no indication that Blue was not taking any more members so we came aboard.. I'm personally thankful there was such a site to go to. Though there are others, this is more quaint. I've read many times how things have changed here, mostly because the people here don't like change. Some have treated us with disrespect from the get go no matter what the subject is. Then again others have been and are great. Tough opinions, yes, as always, no matter where you go. In all due respect those who disapprove don't own the site, but believe they do. Sports is a drop in the bucket subject here. There's plenty of other subjects that lead to debates, as well. Debating isn't the problem as said, it's when people attack each others character is when it becomes a problem. Especially when they think they know. Having differences of opinions will forever be. I respect your tenure here, Belle. No question. We both had feelings on a certain subject is how I see it, and we expressed it. I'm sure it won't be the last time. Sticking to the subject will always be key with me. 

And for the last part, thank you. 

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The only thing you need to know about me is you will never have to assume or read between the lines, if I haven't said it don't put a spin on it, I'm very straightforward and I never use sarcasm or jokes to conceal the real meaning. I'm sure we will get on bearing that in mind 

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Belle, 

Same! I think everyone should be straightforward, direct. I don't appreciate nastiness though.  No one listens when there's a nasty vibe or tone, they just react. I understand too that it's easy to take someone wrong since there's no real human interactions in these texts. Experiencing feelings is not wrong, however, the feeling itself can be wrong in relation to reality. Working with people, especially in HR for many years has taught me that amongst other things. All the same, I do get where your coming from. I appreciate you telling me how you feel. 

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Since our conversation I keep getting posts from Yorkshire race horse retraining and rehousing centre on my FB feed.

Spooky

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That happens to me often, Belle. They call that "Spyware." Spooky, yes, lol. I never got any posts on horse racing and/or the like, however, I do with many other things. For example I was looking at sneakers the other day and I suddenly was receiving posts from some of the sites I was on. Technology these days is spooky alright, lol